Industry Data
What the industry can charge vs. what it must pay
Good policy and good business planning start with good data. The two charts below tell the central economic story of aerospace and defense manufacturing in one glance. Commercial and military aircraft programs run on long, predictable planning cycles — multi-year fixed-price contracts and long-term agreements — so the prices producers receive climb slowly and smoothly. The inputs those producers must buy do not. Both charts are served live from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED®) and update automatically each month; every series is indexed to January 2019 = 100 so they can be compared directly.
Chart 1 — Output prices: aerospace & defense producer price indexes
Producer price indexes for aerospace product & parts manufacturing (NAICS 3364), aircraft (336411), aircraft engines & engine parts (336412), and search, detection & navigation instruments (334511) — the avionics segment at the heart of Long Island's industry. Note how flat and orderly these lines are: predictable long-term production planning holds d$/dt low.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series PCU3364133641, PCU336411336411, PCU336412336412, PCU334511334511, indexed to Jan 2019 = 100. Chart updates automatically; click it for the interactive version.
Chart 2 — Input costs: materials, energy, and labor
What it takes to build the product: aluminum mill shapes, industrial electric power, electronic components and accessories, and average hourly earnings in durable-goods manufacturing. These are the costs a supplier eats when it quotes a fixed price today for parts it will deliver over the life of a long-term agreement.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED®, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Series WPU102501 (aluminum mill shapes), WPU0543 (industrial electric power), CEU3100000008 (durable-goods mfg. hourly earnings), WPU1178 (electronic components & accessories), indexed to Jan 2019 = 100. Chart updates automatically; click it for the interactive version.
The squeeze, in numbers
From January 2019 through mid-2026, aerospace output prices rose about 22% — a smooth 2–3% per year, the signature of an industry that plans production in decades. Over the same period, durable-goods manufacturing wages rose about 41%, industrial electricity about 40% and accelerating, and aluminum mill shapes about 93% — with violent swings along the way that no small supplier on a fixed-price contract can hedge. Electronic components tell the sharpest story of all: essentially flat for six years, then up roughly 27% in eighteen months. That shock also explains the one exception in Chart 1 — navigation and detection instruments, climbing steeply since 2024 — because defense electronics reprice as government contracts roll over, while the small suppliers beneath them stay locked to fixed-price agreements. The gap between the flat lines in Chart 1 and the climbing lines in Chart 2 is the margin squeeze on the supply chain's small and mid-size manufacturers: long-term agreements hold their selling prices nearly constant while their input costs move like commodities. That squeeze — and the workforce competition visible in the labor line — is the economic backdrop for every position LIFT advocates.
Production outlook: Airbus & Boeing programs
For suppliers planning capacity, the announced production ramps of the major aircraft programs are the demand signal — and the repeated slips are the schedule risk the supply chain absorbs. Current published rates and targets, from company guidance and program reporting:
| Program | Current rate (approx.) | Announced target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Airbus A220 | ~7 / month | 12 / month during 2026 | Target trimmed from 14 / month on supply-chain and demand balance; no date set for the higher rate. |
| Airbus A320 family | ~60 / month | 75 / month in 2027 | Engine and aerostructure supply remain the limiting factors. |
| Airbus A330neo | ~4 / month | 5 / month by 2029 | Stable line; viable through the 2030s. |
| Airbus A350 | ~6–7 / month | 12 / month by 2028 | Ramp constrained by supply chain and cabin equipment; executives have discussed rates beyond 12 in the 2030s. |
| Boeing 737 MAX | ~42 / month | 47 / month in 2026 | FAA cleared the move from 38 to 42 in late 2025 and endorsed 47 in May 2026; further steps (52+) contemplated beyond that. |
| Boeing 767 | ~3 / month (shared with KC-46) | Commercial freighter production ends 2027 | 767F sunsets with the 2027 emissions rule; the KC-46A military tanker line continues. |
| Boeing 787 | ~8 / month | 10 / month | Recovered after engine-supply slips in early 2026; premium seating is now the binding constraint, so deliveries lag production. |
| Boeing 777 / 777X | Low-rate; 777X building inventory | First 777X delivery planned 2027 | Certification running seven years late; large backlog of built aircraft awaiting entry into service. 777F freighter line also winds down by 2027. |
As of August 2026; updated periodically. Rate targets are company guidance, not commitments — both airframers have repeatedly revised them. Monthly delivery actuals: Airbus orders & deliveries · Boeing orders & deliveries. Program reporting: Forecast International Flight Plan.
Research & white papers
Long Island's Largest Manufacturing Sector — why the state's industry statistics show about 2,500 aerospace jobs when the industry counts about 28,000, and what New York should track instead.
3000 by 30: Building Long Island's Aerospace & Defense Workforce (PDF) — LIFT's workforce development proposal for New York State, including industry employment estimates and program funding analysis.
This data hub will grow. If there is an indicator, dataset, or analysis of New York's aerospace and defense economy that would help your planning, let us know.